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Disciple724
Regular Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 86
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Thursday, September 11, 2008 - 09:08 am: | 
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On this day 9/11 ( coincidence?), the latest economic data points to a potential economic collapse. Most notable is Major Financial Firms, Washington Mutual, Lehman Bros., etc. may have system problems. This after the Treasury took into over last week Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, (these ain't pimp and ho names). Closer to home the jobless claims grew to a much larger than forecast 445,000. We are in a world of crap unless we get our act together. any thoughts or opinions? |
Disciple724
Regular Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 93
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, September 15, 2008 - 02:56 pm: |
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I posted this here a few days ago and it drew no response. Today some of what I spoke about came to fruition. I have a solution to the credit/ real estate crisis,that I want to share with regulators, but most of my contacts are republican. If I give it to them Barak's chances of getting elected is over. therefore I have been trying to reach someone in his team. Does anybody know someone close to his camp? |
Disciple724
Regular Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 94
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, September 15, 2008 - 09:12 pm: |
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Wow!!!!, the financial world as we know it is crumbling. All of the "high society" folks may soon get a chance to see how much character we have as all the money we thought we had is quickly evaporating. If this is the end, I don't know, but I would have thought that this would have sparked at least a discussion!! |
Disciple724
Regular Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 95
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, September 15, 2008 - 09:24 pm: |
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As we speak, The world's largest insurer AIG is in danger od collapsing. The worlds central banks are working overtime to try to determine what this would mean and how it will unfold.
It may be that the members here know more about this than me and hence the eery calm. Still the the concern is this could cause a "run on the global banking system" (watch CNBC).
Novus Ordo Seculum as conspictuously inscribed on the "Official Seal of the United States of America" and displayed on the back of the base dollar. ( I never understood why the Official Seal of the United Staes has messages in languages other than the "Official language of the United States--English--, But maybe all the Yale Graduates have some answers, as this message is also inscribed on that institution's "Coat of Arms". Any PWI graduates input? |
Disciple724
Regular Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 96
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, September 15, 2008 - 09:47 pm: |
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New York Governer Patterson, could result in 30,000 lay-offs, and in an "unprecedented" move, suspended law and allowed the Major insurer to "lend money to itself". As a result, both major ratings agency downgraded its debt, and, well, "Financial Armegedon".
Since I know that there are advid readers here, now might be a good time to get out the "Good Book" and get close to your maker; it about to get ugly!
http://finance.yahoo.com/?u |
Cynique
"Cyniquian" Level Poster
Username: Cynique
Post Number: 12871
Registered: 01-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, September 15, 2008 - 11:12 pm: |
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What I want to know, Disciple, is should I withdraw my savings from the bank in case there is a run on banks and they close?? My little nest egg is under $50,000. I also have a money market account with MetLife which seems to be holding on. Huh, huh? What do do, what to do?  |
Disciple724
Regular Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 99
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Monday, September 15, 2008 - 11:57 pm: |
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Actually, no! Withdrawing the money would exacerbate the problem. The fact is a nation's currency is only as secure as it ability to manage its fiscal affairs. Think about exactly like it as a check. If the person who wrote the check has careless issued too many checks without sufficient deposits, the risk of that check bouncing is high. Once this becomes known, people will lo longer except his check.
For too long America has gotten by on the reputation that it is the Greatest.. blah, blah, blah. Many have taken our privileged position to mean that we can not fail. As such, the recent administrations have debt after debt after debt too the extent that we have become a huge net debtor nation. Add in Iraq, a few natural disasters, a economically dysfunctional lower and middle class and you have a disaster waiting to happen. Most problematic is the lax citizen attitude towards this problem.
Cynique, one can not get too comfortable with appearances on Wall St. The place ( and world for this matter) is full of deceptions. Bear Stearns was a 100 year institution with a seemingly stellar portfolio and it literally evaporated in a manner of weeks. If you had suggested (as I did) that Lehman Bros going bankrupt 1 year ago, one would have thought you were crazy (I've been called worse). This AIG insurer dwarfs them both a hundredfold and the repercussions are like a Global Financial tsunami.
What does one do! First and foremost, one has to informed about these matters and learn how to hold our government policy makers accountable and call for them to appropriately responsive. We also must at all cost get rid of the Republican influence in this nation ( if it is not too late). This administration is intentionally causing these problems ( too dynamic to fully disclose). Obama represents our chance here.
The good news is that we can quickly resolve this disaster. The solution lies in stopping the job/labor erosion that has taken place here and this is an easy problem to fix (relatively speaking). In subsequent post I will go in greater detail, as I am working on a report for the Obama campaign as we speak. God hope It is not too late.
This is a serious topic and others need to grasp the gravity of it. |
Carey
AALBC .com Platinum Poster
Username: Carey
Post Number: 1179
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 08:45 am: |
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Hello Disciple
Your questions and comments to the board remind me of a commercial on ESPN. In the front of a room sat a panel of sports analyst ...some of the greastest minds in sport ...A questioned was asked of them ..."what do you think of Global Warming?" ...the question drew blanks stares ...heads dropped and they looked at each other in bewilderment ...I've always admired your knowledge on the subjects you take an interest in speaking about ...it appears you have a passion and experience in the matters of this topic ...So that I can take this blank look off my face ...would you care to tell us ...how big of a deal is this meltdown? ...Now break it down to me like I am a 10 yr old (Thump's Phrase) ...I noticed the markets around the world have taken a hit ...some have seen 5% and 7% drops ...translate that into something I can feel ...can you make a comparison between the Hong Kong Market and the NYSE ...How does what happens on the NYSE affect on the other markets and the world at large? ...and of course on the everyday working Joe? ... like Cynique, some of my questions are of a personal nature too ...I have ties to Merril Lynch ...again, what if anything, do you personally think an individual should do with any investments, in these companies that are in the news? ...I think another question might be what about companies that have not hit the news???
Of course my good man ...your check is in the mail. |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 102
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 10:00 am: |
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First of all I want to assure you that the problem is easily fixable, but it will require the the current world leaders rethink many of thier faulty economic theories. Many of these have several fundanmental flaws that they will never be ever to detect given there background.
Consequently, it is extremely important that individuals educate themselves concerning the matter. to help here over the course of the next few days I will be keeping the board posted on all relavant issues, and I will do it in "8 year old" talk; my specialty! So stay abreast. As far as Mer is concerned you are in good hands( That's Allstate isn't it--there not so good), the BAC merger yesterday should isolate you and others. Below is Part 1 of an outline that I sent to Barak Obama, this morning and think it should go along way towards helping you understand the problem. No need for the "check" happy to help my "peeps". Tell me what you think.
Political Economy:
One of the primary objectives of every democratic society should be to foster a mutually beneficial social-business environment in which, both, its corporate and natural citizens can prosper. This objective promotes peace, prosperity, and a pleasant civil environment that is consistent with the Constitutional mandate.
In order to do this society must promote and preserve accountability and responsiveness between, among others: employers and employees, producers and consumers, lender-debtor, directors and shareholders, and above all, political leaders and citizens. These relationships are not unilateral, but dynamic and are critical interactions of a healthy social-economic existence. Above all, everyone has a duty to each other to transact in good faith.
For some time now the bonds of these relationships have been violated and in some cases even severed. Consequently the social economic environment has gradually deteriorated. As such, the prosperous promise that was once America's sits tenuously on the brink of collapse. The financial systems that were once the example of the world is slowly unraveling before our eyes, and business and political leaders are stump as to what went wrong and what to do about it.
The purpose of this document is to outline the details of this and to outline how we must return to basics and restore the political and financial stability of this great Union. Within, we discuss how the natural balance that should exist in several of our social economic relationships have become grossly skewed to one side or the other and in many critical areas, as previously pointed, has even been severed. This is what is destroying our political and economical system and it must (and can) be rectified quickly to avoid collapse.
The purpose of this report is to help political, economic, and business leaders understand the multiple dynamics that are contributing to this systemic problem. Part I gives a general diagnosis and troubleshoots the system's design and function to find the acute flaws that are driving the problem and identifies additional risk that might exist. Part II (forthcoming) outlines a creative solution that will remedy the problem.
Understanding the U.S. Real Estate/ Mortgage Crisis
Monday, September 15, 2008
02:46 AM
Currently the U.S. financial system is in complete disarray as the existences of poorly constructed economic theories are being exposed. These temporarily lucrative business practices are now followed by far more expensive consequences for government regulators and American citizens. Most notable are the large financial institutions that find themselves with trillions of dollars of defaulting debt and or declining collaterals. This in turn has caused a freezing within the global credit markets and has escalated fears of multiple global recessions in both developed and emerging economies.
Part I: Troubleshooting a faltering Economy:
Below is a sequential explanation of common and customary social and business practices-- in particular the labor, real estate, and mortgage markets-- that have combined to create the current financial crisis.
o Lack of economic sophistication among many political policy makers, some business owners, and many economic policy makers left much room for abuses to go largely undetected until significant damages had been done. This leads to:
• Flawed traded and business laws with financially exploitable loopholes, with ineffective and lax regulation.
• Counterproductive business practices that also allow huge hedge funds to exploit these deficiencies, leaving government and citizens to pay the price.
• And faulty, ineffective solutions whenever these are discovered, leaving the root problems still in place.
o The American citizen’s poor comprehension of economic and financial matters-- due, in part, to lack of easily understandable finance curriculum and vast amount of widely accepted misinformation circulating on these matters--contributes to the general poor financial decision making /position of the majority of American citizens-- which has led to insufficient financial stability and or wealth building, over consumption, poor credit use, over indebtedness and poor debt management.
o Hyper-inflated real estate prices due to improper marketing of this "utilization asset" that has a particular value as a "financial asset" with an appreciating value. This misconception has paved the way for "price inflation" to be misrepresented as "appreciation" (see price to value clarification)". This flawed practice has existed for multiple generations hence have become a commonly accepted idea and practice. Consequently, this misleads and forces consumers (homebuyers) to make poor financing choices (i.e. rate, terms, and duration) for purchasing shelter.
o The escalating prices of house forces citizens to finance them over longer periods of time (30 years). This dramatically drives up the true cost of securing shelter by disguising it within a lower face payment at the expense of one’s personal wealth and effectively amounts to usurious terms (time in lieu of rate). Due to its structure, the mortgagor will generally work for the lending institution for 22 years before he will begin to contribute significantly to their equity (ownership) stake. This is an extremely inefficient and costly way to acquire shelter for the consumer and indirectly leads to their higher capital demands. While the banks profit greatly from these inefficiencies, they will usually leave the consumer insufficiently capitalized for retirement, healthcare, etc. This now becomes government’s problem to solve.
o This overconsumption and additional excessive credit use leads to higher living cost which leads to higher salary demands. Eventually, they will pass on this expense to their employer by way of higher salary demands. These poor personal finance decisions leave consumers only two ways to service this maladaptive lifestyle: debt by borrowing against future income earnings, or their employer through labor demands/negotiations.
o These higher wage demands leave employers little choice except to pass on rising wage expense back to their customers; thereby contributing to inflation (rising prices). This initiates an ever escalating spiral of higher and higher inflation; financed by more and more debt. Eventually, however, things reach a point at which employers can no longer raise prices and remain competitive and or profitable. And since they are obligated to shareholders to generate profits, the only other alternative is to seek cheaper labor markets.
o As more and more employers seek "alternative labor options" firings and layoffs in the domestic job markets contracts; fueled by accelerated technology integration and outsourcing to foreign labor markets. This pressures municipalities that rely on these revenue streams to fund civil services and to pay debt. To make up for short falls, they raise taxes, passing cost back to consumer.
o Moves into cheaper labor markets initially appear to be an extremely profitable since the attractive labor spreads allow them to acquire labor in a low cost environment and sell in a higher priced one. However the employer- employee relationship within an economy is directly tied to the producer-consumer relationship. Severance at one junction will eventually deteriorate them all. Eventually, the accelerated job loses coupled with expiring unemployment benefits compromise their ability to fund their daily lives (consume). Most importantly, it compromises the consumer’s ability to pay back debt and the entire aforementioned inflation spiral begins to rapidly unwind.
This describes the complete cycle, more or less, of how economic bubbles are created and eventually burst (illustrations available, but not included). The challenge for leaders is how to slowly deflate these bubbles with as little economic disruptions as possible. The next section, Part II, of this document details a creative method to do just that in a way that will calm the Global markets. |
Carey
AALBC .com Platinum Poster
Username: Carey
Post Number: 1181
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 12:17 pm: |
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Disciple
I think that was very well written and fairly easy to understand ...let me see if my 8yr old mind comprehended what you said:
Basically the problem is a huge domino or pyrimid ...with the weight being felt at the bottom much like Reagan's "trickle down effect" but I doubt if he meant it in this way.
You talked about problems ...one being the misconceptions associated with "utilization assets" and "financial asset" ...leaving a skewed, fuzzy or lopsided balance sheets ...which in turn makes "price inflation look like appreciation ...purposely or otherwise!
You identified others problem ...let me see if I have this right ...you lay blame where it is due ...you didn't use the word ignorance but you said the lack of economic sophistication by policy makers led to favorable credit banking laws which enable lenders and hedge funds to reap huge profits ..."gouge" and "usurp" the un-knowing ...Am I reading you correctly?
All of this appears to be straight forward ...I can assume many know the roots of the evil and will protest against any changes ...Consequently what can the little man do?
That reminds me ...one of your opening statements left me to wonder...
"Above all, everyone has a duty to each other to transact in good faith"
...I don't wish to sound like a cynic but that caused me to pause.
Okay Disciple ...how did we do? ...My Fifth Grade Class ...and your teaching skills? ...Btw, I don't like that "right before our eyes" line ...sounds too....ahhh...you know. |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 104
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 12:38 pm: |
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Carey, my last post was somewhat in haste so i didn't address the issue orderly as perhaps I should have.
First of all, The magnitude of the issues concerning AIG are huge. Failure here would cause an unwinding that would make all the currency you own; worthless. You see, they have tenicles in all aspects of financial dealings and ficilitate the management of trillions of dollars of risk.
Consider Ike, and all the damage there. Now imagine all those people not getting their insurance payments to repair those home. Think about the life Insurance policies, annuities, municiple bond insurance, etc. And this isn't just domestically, it also reaches globally, which could has further reaching reprucussions.
Imagine a Russian government interest having paid you billions in premium, only to find out that you can't pay them. You don't tell mobsters that you don't have their money! Wars are started over such.Best case scenario in the event of failure, the U.S. Dollar loses all credibility in Global markets, and that won't be good.
Now there is no reason to withdraw your money, because if they fail, the dollar will not be worth 10 cents IMO. The only thing that will retrace its value will be select companies that you own, because these could do business in any currency, pounds,euros, etc..
Most likely they will find a way to patch this up so that it can hold for a few weeks. After that something more permanent will have to be done.
I here few people here supportive of the republican agenda! i wonder if they truly understand what they are asking for. |
Carey
AALBC .com Platinum Poster
Username: Carey
Post Number: 1182
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 12:54 pm: |
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Hold up Mr. Disciple...they (we) may understand their position or "what they are truly asking for"...but at what cost? So, without explanation ...do we need to go there!!!
I can assume many see your voice of concern as a puff of smoke ...it will be hard to conceive the US dollar dropping in such drastic terms ...are you somewhat inflating the consequences?
Now I am just asking ...playing the devil advocant.
Now lets say what you say is true ...lets say although a company may be invested in countries the trade in something other than the dollar ...wouldn't those that do business in dollars still have to trade in them to purchase their basic needs? |
A_womon
AALBC .com Platinum Poster
Username: A_womon
Post Number: 2394
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 01:03 pm: |
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Believe it or not, if the US dollar should fail as described above, global economies will fail also. No if ands or buts. The dollar is the scale that all other currency is measured by, and how strong or weak the dollar is dictates the worth of other global currency. So yeah, it would be a global disaster... |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 105
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 01:08 pm: |
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Congratulation, you got an A-,
I deducted 5 points for the " I doubt if he meant it that way", he did. What most didn't realize is that when he said "trickle down" he was saying: we are going to be "pissing on you folk down there. Republicans are the masters of the doulbe spin talk and it sucks some of us in all the time.
Also, I deducted 3 points for you bewilderment of my call to duty statement. As a citizen--especially in a democracy-- you have a duty to hold your elected officials accountable for their actions. They work for you, not the other way around, but so many have become so lax that the patients are running the assylum.
As the boss, you should have a firm grip on economic and financial matters and pressure legislators to remain accountable to you. Now I know there are obsticles to this, but that's where unity comes in. Not only because you will benefit, but its your duty, even if to your childern to preserve, even improve this democracy.
Basically, we live in a "dual system' society; Democracy for law, and Capitalism for business. However, the two systems are not homogenius, rather work against each other. Democracy promotes a more uniform distribution of power, and Capitalism promotes the one with the most capital has the most power.
Those that practice guerilla capitalism, do so to the extent that they will even compromise the democratic ideal,compromise your power ( bribe, lobby, etc.) and by doing so will in effect nullify you rights. Most of us , unknowingly, fail to defend our rights and in doing so relinquish them.
We have to know how to work both systems. |
Carey
AALBC .com Platinum Poster
Username: Carey
Post Number: 1183
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 01:29 pm: |
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Ooohhhh ...Okay Dr. A_Womon **snicker**
You are a wealth of information  . |
Carey
AALBC .com Platinum Poster
Username: Carey
Post Number: 1184
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 01:46 pm: |
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Okay Disciple ...lessons learned ...I'll try not to make that same mistake again . Hey, the first time shame on you ...the next time ...shame on me!
Now, understanding is one thing ...the motivation to "do" and the solutions of "how" is another ...I think you will agree, "right" is one thing but emotions (as you stated) is another ...how do you propose we get out of our comfort zones of familiarity and move to something less familiar and thus uncomfortable ...especially without the tools to do so ...are we not back to problems and solutions ..."the chicken before the egg? ...the egg before the chicken?"
Maybe it's back to your strong statement..."If one controls your thoughts..."? If that's true yet that's all you are working with then....
Come on ...sprinkle me ...I am trying to work on that "A" ...minus the {-} ...then maybe I might feel comfortable enough to pass it on.
Maybe I should ask A_womon . (had to add a little humor...she knows I love her) |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 106
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 02:11 pm: |
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Carey,
Carey,
on you first statement I am not sure what you are stating.
As far as the puff of smoke, I am sure you are right, but tyhat's their loss. Ignorance is bliss, but that rude awakening is a mother!
I am in no way exaggerating the magnitude of this. Listen to any business or political channel, and this story has dominated the entire commentary (dismiss the discussions because most of them don't know squat)but just the fact that the are talking about it should be a clue. More over, every major politician, Governors, Senators, etc. are gripped with this because of the seriousness of it. The reaction that you saw in the global markets are sitting on pins and needles because of it, and some licking their chops.
That said, I believe they will do what ever they can to patch this up because the fallout from it may be too much. Still, this should be a wake up call to everyone that the "Invincible American" call is a myth. FNM, FRE, were too big to fail" and they almost did fail; save for the government bailout. Lehman, was allowed to fail because the governmnet did't want to send a message that every company can expect a bailout. Aig, is so big, that not only can they not afford not to bail them out, but they quite possibly can't.
A_woman,
most major economies have de-levered themselves off of the u.S. dollar years ago. Of all the majors, only the U.S is the only one that is a net debtor nation. There was a time when we lent money to other countries and they were indebted to us. That has changed! While we were asleep, these have paid back the loans, started lending to us, and have even begin to buy out core American assets. Consider the GM, Ford, vs Toyota scenario. Our complacency has enabled several countries to speed right past us in a number of ways. Most of these finacial companies have just comeback from the Pacific Rim seeking bailout financing and they were offered such bad terms they were forced to refuse.
Concerning currencies: all nations measure theirs against all the other; since global trade is so big. And while it is true most major international market trades are transacted in dollars, others have called to stop this and use the Euro. Moreoever, currency only has value to the extent that the issuing authority can back it (just like writing a check). The more bailouts, the more that is called into question. Once individuals get wind that you can honor your bills, they stop excepting those checks.
Using the check analogy: cash is like a predenominated check in 1,5,10,20,50,&100s entitling the bearer the rights to the face value worth of goods, services and or other assets (i.e stocks,bonds, real estate).
Whenever you write a check, the value is not only in the amount that you right on it, but the fact that you have the same value in you account to cover it. Cash works the same way, as long as they have enough value to cover it or people belive thay do. Most hold their worth in dollars dollars in because they assume they would always be good. But everyday they lose wealth because inflation erodes the value of the dollar.
Twenty years ago 420 bought a certain amount odf goods when you cashed that bill. Nowadays, you get far less. prices went up, value went down, same thing.
I 'll address the "print more" issue when that comes up. |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 107
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 02:35 pm: |
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Carey,
You are correct solutions are much harder; but available. As far as the comfort zones:
The genius of both our existence and our intelligence is that we can be both firm and flexible, still and or mobile. To change, even improve, is our heritage and our blessing. We recieve it every time we seek to perfect ourselves. In this manner, I believe I can help; I have plans to publish a book. maybe you could help me there, I suffer sometimes from writer confidence! |
A_womon
AALBC .com Platinum Poster
Username: A_womon
Post Number: 2395
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 03:00 pm: |
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Carey--yes I know ! |
Carey
AALBC .com Platinum Poster
Username: Carey
Post Number: 1185
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 04:15 pm: |
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Disciple ...you ...YOU suffer from writers confidence? I don't know how to take that but ...confidence you have and ...writer, you are ...albeit a little verbose ...a little
Anyway, you may have toppled the apple cart ...there are many great writers that visit this board ...I am not one of them! My help would be minimal at best, I'll not try to fool you or myself ...of course, if you were looking for someone to "listen" with the ear of the common man ...I could turnup my earing aid. Besides ...you are the man ...you have passion that would drive most to places they never thought possible ...I am merely a gag writer ...an entertainer of sorts ...I speak, I use my mouth and not the pen.
Having said all of that ...surely you were being facetious ...that's right ...maybe I should tell you my real name and put you on my payroll ...gasp, that would never work ...you would cost to much. I'll tell you what though ...I've used some of your stuff ...sure have ...Thank You.
Have you ever used someone elses name (name only)so that when others goggles you they come up with all kinds of mess *lol*. It's funny because although they will not tell you they've spied behind your back ...they will develope "tells" that will lets you know they have done just that.
It's sort of deceitful yet affective in trying to determine if a person is trying to "play" or "play you" ...some tend to move closer ...or move away depending on their needs and desires ...especiallly those that are image conscious or overly materialistic.
Anyway my brother, keep doing what you do ...Btw the way ...do you think a brotha could borrow a little money ...am a little short . |
Carey
AALBC .com Platinum Poster
Username: Carey
Post Number: 1186
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 04:18 pm: |
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**smooch smooch-kisses and hugs @ A_womon** |
Troy
AALBC .com Platinum Poster
Username: Troy
Post Number: 1534
Registered: 01-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 06:44 pm: |
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Disciple724, despite all of the doom and gloom in the press consumer confidence increased all throughout the Summer. Gas prices are down, Lehman was bailed out by Barclays. The feds bailed out Fannie Mae.
Sure there are folks suggesting we prepare for a depression worse than the one in '29. But as you know the economy goes through shocks all the time each time measures are taken to prevent similiar situations from reoccurring. We've always recovered. We will recover from this one too.
History tells us that the United States will not last forever, but I don't think the current economy is the beginning of that end.
No one (rather no one reasonable) wants the global or US economy to collapse. That does not mean there won't be any short or medium term pain. I just don't think it is the end of the world. Which explains why the general public is not overly concerned.
The US can wage war on two fronts and the only folks who feel the pain are the ones in uniform and their families. No rationing, no brown outs - nothing...
We are a fat rich nation. The poorest of us live better than 3/4 of the rest of the planet.
This plus the fact few people really understand what is going on may explain the lack of response to your first 5 posts on this topic.
This is not to say we should not be taking action to prepare for this economic downturn; we should always be preparing for economic downturns -- they are inevitable. |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 108
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 09:08 pm: |
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Troy,
Modern day Economics, a social science, is distinguished from all the other physical sciences. In the latter cases, the scientist isolates themselves from the experiments or research so as to not influence the outcome (scientific method). But in modern economics they (economist) interact with the data and manipulate it so as to produce a desired outcome. Often times the skew their finding to support certain agendas.
As a natural born scientist and mathematician, having abstained from University education (okay I didn't have the money ;-)), I remain true to certain disciplines that most routinely violate in both their teaching and their practice. As such, I easily see their flaws and manipulations.
For example, the "consumer confidence" you speak of, those findings can (and routinely are) easily be influenced by who they ask, when they ask, and how they ask. For example polling someone at a time when they just received a "stimulus check" will influence the response you get. Asking someone on Fifth Ave. will yield a much different answer than the 3/4 that you speak of. So one shouldn't put too much credence in "statistical polls"
The medias is full of wordsmiths and spin doctor too keep Joe average mentally sedated. Like a fish on a hook, they take a yard and give a foot. before you know it you have been reeled in. "Gas prices are down". Oh really, where are you buying gas! They take you from $2.25 to $4.25 and back to $3.50 and you feel that gas prices are down? I guess I subscribe to a different type of math.
Lastly, for now, Lehman wasn't bailed out, they went into bankruptcy and that institution that of about 100 years and last year worth billions at last check sold for .19! Moreover, only those that are not in the know view the Fannie, Freddie conserver ship as a good thing; their shareholders can get about .35 for those trillion dollar institutions. The buzz on the floor is "If you are not both scared and confused, then you are not paying attention. The beginning of the end? well Jim Cramer of "Mad Money" stated: " At this point I would advocate passing a hat around the world before we let American International Group (AIG) fail, because the results would be that catastrophic". Does sound so fat and rich. This is not your usual run of the mill correction, friend! |
Troy
AALBC .com Platinum Poster
Username: Troy
Post Number: 1535
Registered: 01-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 - 11:10 pm: |
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Disciple724 interesting.
Gas prices are down from their high earlier in the year.
If you don't buy into economics ("modern"), statistics like the consumer price index, or university education then we realy can't have a meaningful conversation.
That said, Jim Cramer of "Mad Money", while entertaining to listen to, can not predict the future. He could be completely wrong. Maybe letting AIG fail, if it comes to that, might just be a good idea.
The US is rich and fat (meaning we consume to excess) by any standard you'd like to use.
I'd agree that this is not you "run of the mill correction". But none of the big shocks are "run of the mill". In any case it is not is not the end of the world. |
A_womon
AALBC .com Platinum Poster
Username: A_womon
Post Number: 2396
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Wednesday, September 17, 2008 - 11:15 am: |
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so Troy,
Are you agreeing with McCain that our economy is "fundamentally" sound?
As far as gas prices go here in ohio they shot up to 399per gallon for regular and over 400per gallon for other types of fuel so no gas prices are not lower here. In fact they are at record highs and have been that way since they first uttered the name IKE.
Disciple,
While I agree that one day the american dollar will no longer be the standard by which all other monetary systems are weighed, with the Eurodollar challenging its position, I don't agree that we have reached that threshhold yet. The Euro still measures its worth in relation to the us dollar, as does other currency at this time.
While I agree that we are no longer the financial superpower that we once were, owing billions to China among others, the fact that the dollar remains the measuring stick is somewhat of a mystery to me.
I maintain that when the american dollar collapses, it will usher in the world bank, quickly followed by the world government, world leader, etc...after all, isn't this the real goal of the New World Order which pushes globalization? |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 112
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Wednesday, September 17, 2008 - 11:42 am: |
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A_Woman,
Have you been monitering "financial channels lately; bloomberg, fox business, CNBC? Because the confidence that you have about the dollar, and its role as they measuring stick is seriously being called to question. Regular news channels tend to do the sound bit thing so ordinary viewers do get as good a perspective as perhaps they need. I have a diffent filter, but the mood is somber and fearful. |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 113
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Wednesday, September 17, 2008 - 12:14 pm: |
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If you don't buy into economics ("modern"), statistics like the consumer price index, or university education then we really can't have a meaningful conversation.
Before I offer my rebuttal, let me see if I have the rules of intellectual engagement staight.
Unless I subscribe to certain "economic indexing models", which are by nature a theoretic proposition, or agree that the "University Education" process has the "right" conclusions, then we can't have a meaningful intelligent dialogue?
Wow, if this is what you are stating then you have indeed painted me into a real small box since it totally disengages my critical thinking skills. Dude, that's like putting me in a boxing match with a stait jacket on. It presupposes that there are no flaws in their logic, which is the basis of my entire argument.
Aren't we intelligent enough to do our own discoveries, and open minded enough to discuss it? I'm up for the challenge, and you can rely on any economic master that you choose!
BTW, Jim Cramer, whom you state "might be wrong" is a Harvard Grad with a degree in economics and Business Ad, so that quite a dilemma since he and almost every other "university grad' agreed with me on that point. |
Cynique
"Cyniquian" Level Poster
Username: Cynique
Post Number: 12880
Registered: 01-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Wednesday, September 17, 2008 - 01:19 pm: |
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Famed University of Chicago economist Milton Friedman would certainly agree with Troy. He theorized that business failures should be allowed to correct themselves - and they will -- in this case with the help of the government which has a vested interest in rescuing these companies.
And when all else fails, the U.S. Treasury can always print more currency.  What? Me worry? |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 114
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Wednesday, September 17, 2008 - 04:13 pm: |
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Famed University of Chicago economist Milton Friedman would certainly agree with Troy. He theorized that business failures should be allowed to correct themselves - and they will -- in this case with the help of the government which has a vested interest in rescuing these companies.
Cynique, the keyword is "theory" which is just an hypothesis and has not been proven. Still, given his and others like Adam Smith's "creditials" their students have treated them as "fact". And, upon become leaders, have structured the mordern day financial and business institutions with these theoritical models in mind. Therefore, in essence, we are living the actual experiment--which since this is a social science, that would be appropriate.
So,looking at the results, one would have to conclude based on the fact that when faced with the real live situation and circumstances, the highly University educated leaders of our day, like Bernanke (Yale) and Paulson (not sure) concluded that it would not be best and in the words of Paulson's statement yesterday "we have an antiqated market system with significant systemic risks and flaws". Almost word for word what I told co-workers 13 years ago. Besides the empirical evidence, and the mathematics with these models are are conclusive.
And when all else fails, the U.S. Treasury can always print more currency. What? Me worry
Actually I was prepared for this one (see a few post back), the more you print the less international credibility and or value the bills retain (dilution).
Ironically something unprecedented happened today! The spread on the Treasury Bills went negative!!! In plain talk that means the U.S Treasury was charging $101 cash for $100 worth of treasury notes; you are literally paying the Treasury a premium to take cash off your hands.
I'm not stating this to worry you just giving folks a heads up toget wise and get active. Consumer confidence could just be a bad case of over optimism, ignorance or hope-- the new religion of the millinium.
Market closed down 453.32 points; ouchhhh! |
Troy
AALBC .com Platinum Poster
Username: Troy
Post Number: 1537
Registered: 01-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Thursday, September 18, 2008 - 09:32 am: |
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A_womon, "fundamentally sound"; compared to what? You get no arguement from me that the finanical sector is in the crapper right about now. But no one, and I repeat, NO ONE knows how long it will take to correct. The best folks can do is take an educated guess based upon experience, inution and available information.
Disciple724, as you surely must know, the global economy is an unimageably complex beast. Part of the reason folks don't know how long are this curent financial crisis will last -- or even how serious it is, is due to this complexity.
The parts of the system most seriously effected now including AIG, Hedge Funds, etc aren't even regulated.
As a result, I'm very wary of any individual who claims to have the solutions to all the ills of the economy.
Futher anyone who dismisses the indicators used to measure the economy is suspect off the bat. It is like a blind man trying to describe an object to someone else. The only person that description will work with is another blind person. This is why we can't have a reasonable conversation on the subject.
We know, for example, that the economy outside of the financial sector seems to be doing just fine (for now). Marketing, R&D, new company start ups, have not been effected. How do we know this? -- becasue it is measured. You can't dismiss these numbers.
Cynique, even Milton Friedman could not have envisioned a financial sector so complex. Companies are interwined with each other in ways no one fully comprehends.
The most telling thing is that the Feds (with our money) are now proping up AIG. They are obviously afraid AIG's failure would be catastrophic. Not that is scary. |
Cynique
"Cyniquian" Level Poster
Username: Cynique
Post Number: 12883
Registered: 01-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Thursday, September 18, 2008 - 01:43 pm: |
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My post was meant to be comic relief in the midst of all of the gloom and doom. I was trying to be funny when I said the government could always print more money, and although I referred to Friedman's philosophy as being a theory, actually, over a period of time his prognosis proved to be correct - until now when apparently all bets are off.
No nation can stay on top forever. At one time The British Empire ruled the world but it eventually fell on hard times, at least having the dignity to gracefully relinquish its role.
America is on the brink of economic collapse, and the Capitalist success story it once represented has become a cautionary tale illustrating what can happen when greed and wreckless risk-taking collide. Hold on to all of your gold jewlery, folks! Gold has intrinsic value. So do diamonds. Currency is nothing but paper in a time of a financial crises. |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 115
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Thursday, September 18, 2008 - 08:05 pm: |
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Troy,
i will get back to your previous post in a bit.
I am trying to get to the source of your waryiness and or leariness. Do you doubt me because of what i state or is it that i don't boast a sparkled degree. I judge people by the merit of what they say or write.
Now, I outlined the root cause of the sub-prime mess that I post a few threads back before sending to my clients. It recieved a glowing response for its comprehensiveness and its easy to understand language from several economists, professionals, and private investors that use my services. What did you think and or dislike about it. i'm curious. |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 116
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Thursday, September 18, 2008 - 08:12 pm: |
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Cynique,
You may have meant it as a joke, but today all of the central banks were pouring paper like water today.
And your right about the collapse if they don't change their ways, which, for a snake, is hard to do.
I'm going to re-publish a piece dealing with what I believe would be a viable solution to the sub-prime mess. I would love for you to critue it for me if you don't mind. I'll start a new thread. |
Cynique
"Cyniquian" Level Poster
Username: Cynique
Post Number: 12884
Registered: 01-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Thursday, September 18, 2008 - 10:59 pm: |
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Are you serious, Disciple??? I know next to nothing about Economics. I don't have the expertise to critque your dissertation. But I would venture to say without even reading it that your ideas could never get out of the hypothetical stage because corporate America and private industry are not going to implement any solution unless it keeps wealth in the hands of the movers and shakers of this imperialistic nation. |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 118
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, September 19, 2008 - 06:41 am: |
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Cynique,
On the contrary, you know EVERYTHING, about economics.
Now I am not talking about that convoluted BullSh!T that most Universities are spewing. Whose sole purpose is to baffle folks into thinking that they are smarter than them, and therefore should put their finances affairs in the hands of a so called "professional" ( I've got a battle with Troy on that later on--tune in). Look where that has gotten people?
All knowledge and understanding stems from God through words and math (the simple forms will do) and the science of economics is no different. The word economy stems fron two Greek words--eikos, which means house and nomos, which translates into management or acounting). How IRONIC! Economies therefore means nothing more than managing the affairs within your house(s). The broader economy is the collective total effect of this, and the science of economics seeks to study it for the purpose of directing it--presumably for the good of mankind (wink, wink).
As evidence to this, the current economic crisis, as I point out in my post, stems from individuals that unsuspectingly lured into a financial position wherby the can no longer manage their housing and financial affairs.
Now some would have you believe that its about statstics and indices blah, blah, blah, but investigations will show that all of those numbers stem from the individual citizen and their ability or inability to manage thier household affairs. Now it can get complicated, more or less, but if you organize it properly even this is simply.
The toughest part about economics is getting people to trust their God given intelligences over someone elses theoretical ideas that are severely flawed. I know its hard to do after you have paid them $200,000 to "educate" you, but it is what it is. Look at Milton Friedman's and Adam Smith's theories about government intervention and the free market system unraveling before the world's eyes. My knowledge and understanding stems from God and I slept good last night, can't say the same for Bernanke, and Paulson though. |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 119
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, September 19, 2008 - 06:56 am: |
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Cynique,
the reason I asked you is because I'm more interested in how my commentaries read and relate to the lay person. People need help and I believe I can give it ot them, but I have to make things simple but thorough; tougher task since most have short attention spans when it comes to these matters! |
Carey
AALBC .com Platinum Poster
Username: Carey
Post Number: 1194
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, September 19, 2008 - 08:29 am: |
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Sounds like a Pigeon Drop. |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 120
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, September 19, 2008 - 01:26 pm: |
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Carey,
what's up. what exactly sounds like a pigeon drop? |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 121
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Friday, September 19, 2008 - 01:48 pm: |
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Carey,
what's up. what exactly sounds like a pigeon drop? |
A_womon
AALBC .com Platinum Poster
Username: A_womon
Post Number: 2398
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 23, 2008 - 07:45 am: |
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Well Disciple,
As you can see the world still spins on how well the american dollar and our economy performs, contrary to what you posted previously. You see how the Nikkea(sp) and China's equivilent as well as others worldwide took a dynamic tumble at the same time wall street did?
Proof that as the american economy goes so goes the world's... |
Disciple724
Veteran Poster
Username: Disciple724
Post Number: 125
Registered: 07-2008
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!) | | Posted on Tuesday, September 23, 2008 - 11:12 am: |
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a_Woman,
Perhaps you misconstrued my comments. I never implied that the U.S. is not an important peice in the economy, that's obvious. I was staing that our role has changed significantly. Rather tanthe net lender role we played in the past, we have transformed into a net debtor. The turmoil that is being felt because the world is getting a hint that we may not pay on that debt.
This economy is shot because too many American's are complacent think that, by our inherant nature, failure is not an option. as such we have placed too much confident in our leader, most of which are economically incompetent. |
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